Transforming forecasts with probabilities

Are you tired of spending more time estimating and forecasting when work will be done than you spend actually doing the work? How often are you wrong? What if you could save money and stress to quickly generate better, more reliable forecasts? In this session, attendees learn how to gather two simple metrics, cycle time and throughput, to create forecasts with probabilities. When you leave this session you'll have solid tactics to answer “When will it be done?" for both individual and multiple work items.

Participants will be able to:

• Learn about the components of a probabilistic forecast and how to use two simple metrics
• cycle time and throughput, to create and continuously update your forecasts
• Learn that if you track the start and finish time of your work, then you can use your historical data to learn the possible outcomes and the odds of each, allowing you to choose the appropriate forecast for the level of risk you're willing to accept

Participants Takeaways:

• You'll have solid tactics to answer the questions "How much can we complete by X date?" and
• "How long will this take?" for both individual and multiple work items

Themes: Metrics, Forecasting, Agile Heuristics